Statistics
Measuring cyclically-adjusted budget balances for OECD countries
By
Nathalie Girouard and Christophe André
(published in
2008-10-24
by
pbermudez
)
Related topics:
Related countries:
Document:
Published and/or Presented at:
André, C. y Girouard, N. (2005). Measuring cyclically-adjusted budget balances for OECD countries. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Summary:
An important tool in the analysis of fiscal policy is the distinction between structural and cyclical
components of the budget balance. This paper describes work undertaken to re-estimate and re-specify the
elasticities underlying the Economics Department's calculations of cyclically-adjusted budget balances.
Account is taken of tax reforms introduced since the previous updating exercise. A number of
methodological innovations have been introduced to better account for the lags between taxes and activity
and to ensure greater cross-country consistency in the estimates. The methodology underlying cyclical
adjustment of expenditures has also been reviewed. Finally, the country coverage has been extended. The
overall results are broadly consistent with the previous set of estimates. The sensitivity of government net
lending to a 1 percentage point change in the output gap remains at around 0.5% of GDP for OECD
economies on average.