| Sumario: | This study analyzes there lative
importance of the factors that influence the
decision to produce for foreign markets
in the Chilean agricultural sector. Using
data obtained from personal interviews with
368 farmers, the market/production decision
was estimated using a multinomial logit model.
Three market/production alternatives were
analyzed: production aimed for the external
market, production for the internal market
but with expectations of being exported, and
production targeted only for the internal market.
Marginal effects, odds ratios and predicted
probabilities were used to identify the relevance
of each variable. The results showed that a
producer that is male, with a higher educational
level, that does not own the land, but rents it,
whose farm has irrigation and is located in an
area that has a high concentration of exporting
producers, will have a high probability of
producing exportables. However, the factor that
has the highest impact on producing for the
external market is the geographic concentration
of exporting producers, that is, an export
spillover effect. Indeed, when the concentration
change from 0 to its maximum (0.26), the odds
of producing exportables rather than producing
traditional products increases by a factor of 70
(against a factor of 10 in the case of irrigation).
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