Biblioteca Digital de VanguardiaForecast model's evaluation and its application to international tourism demand in Colombia
At the present time, factors of financial, cultural, social and environmental order exists susceptible to be used to explain the international tourist flows from and towards a country. (Coshall, 2000: 218). Despite, in this article some economic factors are analyzed that can affect the trips or stay...
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| Formato: | Revistas |
| Lenguaje: | Español |
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Universidad de Cartagena
2007
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| Acceso en línea: | https://revistas.unicartagena.edu.co/index.php/panoramaeconomico/article/view/404 |
| _version_ | 1782340291473178624 |
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| author | Marrugo-Torrente, Dennys |
| author_facet | Marrugo-Torrente, Dennys |
| author_sort | Marrugo-Torrente, Dennys |
| collection | Revista |
| description | At the present time, factors of financial, cultural, social and environmental order exists susceptible to be used to explain the international tourist flows from and towards a country. (Coshall, 2000: 218). Despite, in this article some economic factors are analyzed that can affect the trips or stays of the people. As of 1970 until 1977, the Colombian tourist sector depended in a 50% in average of the tourism coming from the United States and Canada. Between 1978 and 1991, this tourism only represented in average 32%, is to say that it had diminished in 18 percentage points, to give capacity to the European tourism (Italy, Spain, Germany and France) and of other countries of Latin America. In a lapse of 21 years the international tourism towards Colombia happened more or less of 117 thousand visitors to 598 thousands. The growth of this tourism was constant from 1971 to the year of 1977.Key Words: Tourism, Demand. |
| format | Revistas |
| id | oai:revistas.unicartagena.edu.co:article-404 |
| institution | Revista Panorama Económico |
| language | Español |
| publishDate | 2007 |
| publisher | Universidad de Cartagena |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:revistas.unicartagena.edu.co:article-4042020-04-02T09:09:40Z Forecast model's evaluation and its application to international tourism demand in Colombia Evaluación de los modelos de pronóstico aplicados para la demanda turística internacional hacia Colombia Marrugo-Torrente, Dennys At the present time, factors of financial, cultural, social and environmental order exists susceptible to be used to explain the international tourist flows from and towards a country. (Coshall, 2000: 218). Despite, in this article some economic factors are analyzed that can affect the trips or stays of the people. As of 1970 until 1977, the Colombian tourist sector depended in a 50% in average of the tourism coming from the United States and Canada. Between 1978 and 1991, this tourism only represented in average 32%, is to say that it had diminished in 18 percentage points, to give capacity to the European tourism (Italy, Spain, Germany and France) and of other countries of Latin America. In a lapse of 21 years the international tourism towards Colombia happened more or less of 117 thousand visitors to 598 thousands. The growth of this tourism was constant from 1971 to the year of 1977.Key Words: Tourism, Demand. En la actualidad, existen factores de orden financiero, cultural, social y medioambiental susceptibles de ser utilizados para explicar los flujos turísticos internacionales desde y hacia un país. (Coshall, 2000: 218). No obstante, se analizan algunos factores económicos que pueden afectar los viajes o estancias de las personas. A partir de 1970 hasta 1977, el sector turístico colombiano dependía en un 50% en promedio del turismo procedente de Estados Unidos y de Canadá. Entre 1978 y 1991, este turismo representó solamente en promedio el 32%, es decir que había disminuido en 18 puntos porcentuales, para dar cabida al turismo europeo (Italia, España, Alemania y Francia) y de otros países de América Latina. En un lapso de 21 años el turismo internacional hacia Colombia pasó de 117 mil visitantes a 598 mil. El crecimiento de este turismo fue constante desde 1971 hasta el año de 1977.Palabras Clave: Turismo, Demanda Universidad de Cartagena 2007-01-01 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://revistas.unicartagena.edu.co/index.php/panoramaeconomico/article/view/404 10.32997/2463-0470-vol.15-num.15-2007-404 Panorama Económico Journal; Vol. 15 (2007); 179-196 Panorama Económico; Vol. 15 (2007); 179-196 Panorama Económico; v. 15 (2007); 179-196 2463-0470 0122-8900 10.32997/2463-0470-vol.15-num.15-2007 spa https://revistas.unicartagena.edu.co/index.php/panoramaeconomico/article/view/404/355 /*ref*/Alcaide, A. (1964). Econometría del Turismo. Estudios Turísticos, 4: 5-30. /*ref*/Artus, J. (1972). An Econometric Análisis of International Travel. IMF-Staff Papers, 19: 579-614. /*ref*/Ascanio, A. (1998). Elementos del Turismo como Sistema. 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(1976). Planning for Tourism Development: quantitative approaches. New York : Praeger Publishers. /*ref*/Gray, P. (1970) International Travel-International Trade.Lexington: Heaath Lexington Books. /*ref*/Jud, G. (1974). International Demand for Latin American Tourism. Growth and Change. 1 (5): 25-31 /*ref*/Loeb, P. (1982). International Travel to the United States : An Econometric Evaluation. Annals of Tourism Research, 9: 7-20. /*ref*/López, R. Organización Mundial de Turismo. Factores que Influyen en la Demanda Turística y Redistribución de las Corrientes Turísticas. /*ref*/Organización Mundial de Turismo. Anuarios de Estadísticas del Turismo. /*ref*/Organización Mundial de Turismo. Métodos de Previsión Turística. /*ref*/Oficina Central de Estadística e Información (OCEI). Anuarios Estadísticos, 1970-1992. /*ref*/Plog, S. S/f The Uses Demands for Psychographic Research. Travel Tourism and Hospitality Research : a Handbook for Managers and Redearchers. New York, Wiley. /*ref*/Pulido San Román, A. (1966). Introducción a un Análisis Econométrico del Turismo. Tesis Doctoral, Madrid, Instituto de Estudios Turísticos, Cuadernos Monográficos No. 5. /*ref*/Pulido San Román, A. (1966). Aplicaciones de la econometría al análisis del Fenómeno Turístico. Estudios Turísticos , 12: 5-45. /*ref*/Pulido San Román, A. (1989). Predicción Económica y Empresarial. Madrid, Editorial Pirámide. /*ref*/Rabahy, W. (1992). Modelo de Predicción en Turismo: un Proyecto Experimetal en Brasil. Estudios y Perspectivas en Turismo 3: 198-215. /*ref*/Saunders, P., Senter, H. y Jarvis, J. (1981). Forecasting Recreation Demand in the Upper Savannah River Basin. Annals of Tourism Research, 8: 220-235. /*ref*/Schulz, H. (1938). The Theory and Measurement of Demand. Chicago, The University of Chicago Press. /*ref*/Stronge, W. y REDMAN, M. (1982). U.S. Tourism in México : a Response to H. Peter Gray. Annals of Tourism Research, 9: 264-265. /*ref*/Stephen, S. (1982). A Comment on Forecasting Recreation Demand in the Upper Savannah River Basin. Annals of Tourism Research, 9: 251-256. /*ref*/Smeral, E. y WEBER, A. (2000). Predicción de tendencias del Turismo Internacional /*ref*/hasta el 2010. Annals of Tourism Research en Español, 2: 382-409. /*ref*/Smeral, E. y S. UIT. (1996). Econometric Forecasts of Tourism Demand to 2005. Annals of Tourism Research , 23: 891-907. /*ref*/White, K. J. (1985) An International Travel Demand Model : US Travel to Western Europe. Annals of Tourism Research 12: 529-545. Derechos de autor 2015 Panorama Económico |
| spellingShingle | Marrugo-Torrente, Dennys Forecast model's evaluation and its application to international tourism demand in Colombia |
| title | Forecast model's evaluation and its application to international tourism demand in Colombia |
| title_full | Forecast model's evaluation and its application to international tourism demand in Colombia |
| title_fullStr | Forecast model's evaluation and its application to international tourism demand in Colombia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecast model's evaluation and its application to international tourism demand in Colombia |
| title_short | Forecast model's evaluation and its application to international tourism demand in Colombia |
| title_sort | forecast model's evaluation and its application to international tourism demand in colombia |
| url | https://revistas.unicartagena.edu.co/index.php/panoramaeconomico/article/view/404 |