Biblioteca Digital de VanguardiaForecast of business insolvency in Colombia through financial indicators.
Business insolvency affects both companies that enter this process and their suppliers of goods and services. This research uses financial indicators to forecast business insolvency one year in advance.The study was applied to 2,988 companies that reported financial information to the Superintendenc...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Revistas |
| Lenguaje: | Español |
| Publicado: |
Universidad de Cartagena
2019
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| Acceso en línea: | https://revistas.unicartagena.edu.co/index.php/panoramaeconomico/article/view/2639 |
| _version_ | 1782340335346647040 |
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| author | Correa Mejía, Diego Andrés Lopera Castaño, Mauricio |
| author_facet | Correa Mejía, Diego Andrés Lopera Castaño, Mauricio |
| author_sort | Correa Mejía, Diego Andrés |
| collection | Revista |
| description | Business insolvency affects both companies that enter this process and their suppliers of goods and services. This research uses financial indicators to forecast business insolvency one year in advance.The study was applied to 2,988 companies that reported financial information to the Superintendency of Companies (Colombia) during 2017, of which 127 went into insolvency in 2018. The forecast considers financial indicators of liquidity, profitability and indebtedness, and contrasts the results of the logistic regression with the boosting algorithm. It is concluded that financial indicators allow predicting business insolvency. However, non-traditional methodologies such as the boosting algorithm that consider the information asymmetry should be used. |
| format | Revistas |
| id | oai:revistas.unicartagena.edu.co:article-2639 |
| institution | Revista Panorama Económico |
| language | Español |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publisher | Universidad de Cartagena |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:revistas.unicartagena.edu.co:article-26392020-07-03T00:06:02Z Forecast of business insolvency in Colombia through financial indicators. Pronóstico de insolvencia empresarial en Colombia a través de indicadores financieros. Prévisions de l'insolvabilité des entreprises en Colombie au moyen d'indicateurs financiers. Correa Mejía, Diego Andrés Lopera Castaño, Mauricio Insolvency Financial indicators Financial analysis Boosting algorithm Logistic regression Insolvencia empresarial Indicadores financieros Análisis financiero Algoritmo boosting Regresión logística Insolvabilité des entreprises Indicateurs financiers Analyse financière Algorithme de boosting Régression logistique Business insolvency affects both companies that enter this process and their suppliers of goods and services. This research uses financial indicators to forecast business insolvency one year in advance.The study was applied to 2,988 companies that reported financial information to the Superintendency of Companies (Colombia) during 2017, of which 127 went into insolvency in 2018. The forecast considers financial indicators of liquidity, profitability and indebtedness, and contrasts the results of the logistic regression with the boosting algorithm. It is concluded that financial indicators allow predicting business insolvency. However, non-traditional methodologies such as the boosting algorithm that consider the information asymmetry should be used. La insolvencia empresarial afecta tanto a las empresas que entran en este proceso como a sus proveedores de bienes y servicios. Esta investigación hace uso de indicadores financieros para pronosticar la insolvencia empresarial con un año de anticipación. El estudio fue aplicado a 2.988 empresas que reportaron información financiera a la Superintendencia de Sociedades (Colombia) durante el año 2017, de las cuales 127 entraron en proceso de insolvencia en 2018. El pronóstico considera indicadores financieros de liquidez, rentabilidad y endeudamiento, y contrasta los resultados de la regresión logística con el algoritmo boosting. Se concluye que los indicadores financieros permiten pronosticar la insolvencia empresarial, sin embargo se debe recurrir a metodologías no tradicionales como el algoritmo boosting que consideren la asimetría de la información. L'insolvabilité commerciale affecte à la fois les entreprises qui entrent dans ce processus et leurs fournisseurs de biens et services. Cette recherche utilise des indicateurs financiers pour prévoir l'insolvabilité des entreprises un an à l'avance.L'étude a été appliquée à 2988 entreprises qui ont communiqué des informations financières à la Surintendance des entreprises (Colombie) en 2017, dont 127 sont entrées en insolvabilité en 2018. La prévision prend en compte les indicateurs financiers de liquidité, de rentabilité et d'endettement et oppose les résultats de la régression logistique à l'algorithme de boosting. Il est conclu que les indicateurs financiers permettent de prévoir l'insolvabilité des entreprises. Cependant, des méthodologies non traditionnelles telles que l'algorithme de boosting qui considèrent l'asymétrie d'information devraient être utilisées. 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(2015). Debt financing and firm performance: an empirical study based on Swedish data. The Journal of Risk Finance, 16(1), 102-118. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-06-2014-0085 Derechos de autor 2019 Panorama Económico https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | Correa Mejía, Diego Andrés Lopera Castaño, Mauricio Forecast of business insolvency in Colombia through financial indicators. |
| title | Forecast of business insolvency in Colombia through financial indicators. |
| title_full | Forecast of business insolvency in Colombia through financial indicators. |
| title_fullStr | Forecast of business insolvency in Colombia through financial indicators. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecast of business insolvency in Colombia through financial indicators. |
| title_short | Forecast of business insolvency in Colombia through financial indicators. |
| title_sort | forecast of business insolvency in colombia through financial indicators. |
| url | https://revistas.unicartagena.edu.co/index.php/panoramaeconomico/article/view/2639 |