Forecast of business insolvency in Colombia through financial indicators.

Business insolvency affects both companies that enter this process and their suppliers of goods and services. This research uses financial indicators to forecast business insolvency one year in advance.The study was applied to 2,988 companies that reported financial information to the Superintendenc...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Correa Mejía, Diego Andrés, Lopera Castaño, Mauricio
Formato: Revistas
Lenguaje:Español
Publicado: Universidad de Cartagena 2019
Acceso en línea:https://revistas.unicartagena.edu.co/index.php/panoramaeconomico/article/view/2639
Descripción
Sumario:Business insolvency affects both companies that enter this process and their suppliers of goods and services. This research uses financial indicators to forecast business insolvency one year in advance.The study was applied to 2,988 companies that reported financial information to the Superintendency of Companies (Colombia) during 2017, of which 127 went into insolvency in 2018. The forecast considers financial indicators of liquidity, profitability and indebtedness, and contrasts the results of the logistic regression with the boosting algorithm. It is concluded that financial indicators allow predicting business insolvency. However, non-traditional methodologies such as the boosting algorithm that consider the information asymmetry should be used.