Biblioteca Digital de VanguardiaDynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border
The main objective of this article is to isolate the key factors that need to be taken into account in a prospective analysis of the Colombo-Venezuelan border. In the first place, the links between prospective analysis and political risk assessment are examined. Next both are related to the features...
| Autores principales: | , , |
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| Formato: | Revistas |
| Lenguaje: | Español |
| Publicado: |
Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Sede Ecuador
2021
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| Acceso en línea: | https://iconos.flacsoandes.edu.ec/index.php/iconos/article/view/4676 |
| _version_ | 1782344294701465600 |
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| author | Ardila, Martha Lozano, Jorge Iván Quintero, María Alejandra |
| author_facet | Ardila, Martha Lozano, Jorge Iván Quintero, María Alejandra |
| author_sort | Ardila, Martha |
| collection | Revista |
| description | The main objective of this article is to isolate the key factors that need to be taken into account in a prospective analysis of the Colombo-Venezuelan border. In the first place, the links between prospective analysis and political risk assessment are examined. Next both are related to the features which are relevant to their study. Next, methodological issues are discussed based on a review of historical and current academic studies, press reports and case studies built on the results of focus groups and interviews with experts. These materials are used to develop a methodology, build indicators and establish plausible scenarios. In third place, conceptual and practical issues regarding the border are revised, including, foremost, Colombian policies regarding this topic. In the fourth place, economic, political and military risks in the Colombo-Venezuelan border are assessed as well as the particular challenges the border context poses for these aspects. Likewise the impact of COVID-19 need also to be taken into account in any realistic risk calculations to be made in these regions. Finally, the theoretical approach of the article is used to examine three future potential scenarios: one possible, one probable and one desirable. The conclusion is drawn that, due to current developments in the border, migration and crime are expected to increase, while the economic outlook will worsen in the short term. |
| format | Revistas |
| id | iconos-article-4676 |
| institution | Íconos - Revista de Ciencias Sociales |
| language | Español |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Sede Ecuador |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | iconos-article-46762021-07-13T03:33:14Z Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border Dinámicas, vulnerabilidades y prospectiva de la frontera colombo-venezolana Dinâmicas, vulnerabilidades e perspectivas da fronteira colombiano-venezuelana Ardila, Martha Lozano, Jorge Iván Quintero, María Alejandra ámbitos territoriales escenarios frontera colombo-venezolana prospectiva riesgo país seguridad fronteriza áreas territoriais cenários fronteira colombiano-venezuelana prospectiva segurança de fronteira risco país territorial settings scenarios Colombo-Venezuelan border prospective border security country risk The main objective of this article is to isolate the key factors that need to be taken into account in a prospective analysis of the Colombo-Venezuelan border. In the first place, the links between prospective analysis and political risk assessment are examined. Next both are related to the features which are relevant to their study. Next, methodological issues are discussed based on a review of historical and current academic studies, press reports and case studies built on the results of focus groups and interviews with experts. These materials are used to develop a methodology, build indicators and establish plausible scenarios. In third place, conceptual and practical issues regarding the border are revised, including, foremost, Colombian policies regarding this topic. In the fourth place, economic, political and military risks in the Colombo-Venezuelan border are assessed as well as the particular challenges the border context poses for these aspects. Likewise the impact of COVID-19 need also to be taken into account in any realistic risk calculations to be made in these regions. Finally, the theoretical approach of the article is used to examine three future potential scenarios: one possible, one probable and one desirable. The conclusion is drawn that, due to current developments in the border, migration and crime are expected to increase, while the economic outlook will worsen in the short term. Identificar los principales elementos que deben ser considerados en un análisis prospectivo de la frontera colombo-venezolana constituye el objetivo principal de este artículo. Primero, se examina el vínculo de la prospectiva con el riesgo político y con los factores que inciden en su análisis. En segundo lugar, se plantean los aspectos metodológicos basados en la revisión de análisis académicos históricos y coyunturales, de artículos de prensa, y estudios de caso empíricos mediante grupos focales y entrevistas a expertos en el tema para la construcción de indicadores, métodos y escenarios. En tercer lugar, se revisan los elementos conceptuales y prácticos de la frontera, y de las políticas públicas colombianas referentes al tema. En cuarto lugar, se examina el riesgo político, económico y militar en la frontera colombo-venezolana y las particularidades de los ámbitos territoriales elegidos para este estudio, asimismo se plantea la COVID-19 como un factor a tener en cuenta en el análisis de estas regiones. Por último, se analizan tres escenarios: uno posible, uno probable y uno deseable. Se concluye que a corto plazo un escenario probable es el aumento de la migración, las actividades delictivas y el deterioro de la situación económica, todo con el fin de evidenciar, bajo una estructura teórica, las dinámicas existentes en las regiones fronterizas Identificar os principais elementos que devem ser considerados em uma análise prospectiva da fronteira colombiano-venezuelana constitui o objetivo principal deste artigo. Em primeiro lugar, é examinada a ligação entre as perspectivas e o risco político e os fatores que influenciam sua análise. Em segundo lugar, são levantados aspectos metodológicos a partir da revisão de análises acadêmicas históricas e conjunturais, artigos na imprensa e estudos de casos empíricos por meio de grupos focais e entrevistas com especialistas no assunto para a construção de indicadores, métodos e cenários. Terceiro, são revisados ??os elementos conceituais e práticos da fronteira e das políticas públicas colombianas sobre o tema. Em quarto lugar, examina-se o risco político, econômico e militar na fronteira colombiano-venezuelana e as particularidades das áreas territoriais escolhidas para este estudo, bem como o COVID-19 como fator a ser considerado na análise dessas regiões. Por fim, três cenários são analisados ??com base na estrutura teórica proposta: um possível, um provável e um desejável. Conclui-se que no curto prazo um cenário provável é o aumento da migração, da criminalidade e da deterioração da situação económica como reflexo da dinâmica existente nas regiões fronteiriças. Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Sede Ecuador 2021-05-01 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artículo evaluado por pares application/pdf text/html application/xml application/epub+zip https://iconos.flacsoandes.edu.ec/index.php/iconos/article/view/4676 10.17141/iconos.70.2021.4676 Íconos - Revista de Ciencias Sociales; Núm. 70 (2021): Construir fronteras e imaginar ciudadanías: sociedades transfronterizas amazónicas; 37-57 Íconos - Revista de Ciencias Sociales; n. 70 (2021): Construir fronteiras e imaginar cidadanias: sociedades transfronteriças amazônicas; 37-57 Íconos. Revista de Ciencias Sociales; No. 70 (2021): Constructing borders and understanding citizenship: Cross-border societies in the Amazon; 37-57 1390-8065 1390-1249 spa https://iconos.flacsoandes.edu.ec/index.php/iconos/article/view/4676/3657 https://iconos.flacsoandes.edu.ec/index.php/iconos/article/view/4676/3689 https://iconos.flacsoandes.edu.ec/index.php/iconos/article/view/4676/3667 https://iconos.flacsoandes.edu.ec/index.php/iconos/article/view/4676/3700 Derechos de autor 2021 Martha Ardila, Jorge Iván Lozano, María Alejandra Quintero https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/deed.es_ES |
| spellingShingle | Ardila, Martha Lozano, Jorge Iván Quintero, María Alejandra Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border |
| title | Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border |
| title_full | Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border |
| title_fullStr | Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border |
| title_short | Dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the Colombian-Venezuelan border |
| title_sort | dynamics, vulnerabilities and prospects of the colombian-venezuelan border |
| url | https://iconos.flacsoandes.edu.ec/index.php/iconos/article/view/4676 |